Sunday 14 September 2014

Market Forces: Will Friday be Scottish Independence Day?

With voting for the Scottish Referendum taking place in just 5 days time, and the day of reckoning almost upon us, the promotion of ideas and ideologies is at its most extreme and my marketing instincts are being overloaded.

Propaganda, PR and Passion are at their height.

But never before, on the streets of Britain, have I seen such a display of passionate politics. On both sides of a debate.

Yesterday, as my husband and I sat in the sunshine at a pavement café, drinking tea and eating cake, we heard the rousing tones of Dougie MacLean's Caledonia drifting over the city in which we've lived most of our lives. While it's not my husband's favourite song, it was a moment that - for me - captured the essence of what is happening right around us: a groundswell of national pride.

Little did we know at the time, it was THE Dougie MacLean, busking on the high street, just around the corner from where we were enjoying that terribly British tradition of afternoon tea.

Superstar or street smart, conservative or labour, Scottish nationalist or not, the Yes campaign has united individuals from all facets of the political and social spectrum and that's what has made it so unique.

A glance at the two campaigns, side by side, standing out on our main street yesterday showed one thriving and thronging with people, brandishing balloons, and eagerly interacting with inquisitive voters. The other, a small table with a union jack as a table cloth, surrounded by a small clutch of activists scouring the crowds looking for people to speak to.

Scanning down social media timelines showed similar imagery around the country. Thronging crowds in Glasgow and Edinburgh waving flags and singing anthems and small gatherings of No activists, posing gingerly for their requisite selfies.

I've never seen anything like it. Ever.

If I were to use one word to describe what I have seen happening on the streets, it would be this: Jubilation.

A feeling of great happiness or triumph.

A campaign that, win or lose on Friday morning, has already won.

A campaign that has awoken an electorate.

A campaign that, yes or no, has got people interested in the political agenda of their own country.

A campaign that has galvanised the highest ever voter registration levels the United Kingdom has ever seen.

So, with 97% of the country registered to have their say the outcome, whatever it may be, cannot be in question.

It will be the will of the people.

I have a friend who now lives in Australia who is quietly confident that there is a "silent majority" who will turn out to vote No on Thursday.

I'm intrigued by this perception of what is happening in my country. I am right here, right now, to quote Fat Boy Slim, and either this silent majority are very, very quiet, or they are a figment of the imagination.

There's a point in every marketing campaign that we push past the Innovators and Early Adopters and reach the Early Majority. When we get there, we can comfortably say we have captured 50% of the market for our product.

But beyond that is the Late Majority and the Laggards. The Late Majority will take a market position to somewhere in the region of between 50% and 74%.

I'd argue that, beyond the launch of a new iPhone, I've never seen a marketplace so eagerly embracing something as I have for that of the Yes vote in the last 4 weeks. This movement would put the Yes campaign comfortably into the Late Majority and recent polls are firmly hinting at the Yes campaign being in that position.

In 5 days we'll know if market forces are really at work here, or if there really is a silent majority.

Only Scotland knows.